Thoroughbred Horse Racing

Looking For Success At The Breeders Cup?  
Stick To the Plan
By CEFarm


First of all let's just say that it is not easy to pick winners in professional Horse Racing, particularly  for  novices who  participate a few times a year, when the Triple Crown races and the Breeders Cup come around.


Those who are successful, usually study regularly and stay informed on most everything from practice run times, to trainer notes and owner suggestions, etc. 


In predicting Horse Racing,  sometimes you take more chances by wagering on long shots, anticipating that the risks will pay major dividends, but such is not often the case in this sport.  


While attending the 2018 Breeders Cup,  I decided to go outside the box from my normal analysis, heeding advice from horse racing experts about 2018 being the year of the European horse at Breeders Cup.  


So I  decided to take a few more chances during the two day event, testing out a new formula which focused on the jockey/ horse relationship, with the number of mounts a jockey had on a horse and what were the results played a major part  in my decision making. 


For the record,  European horses (Newspaper of Record, Sister Charlie, Expert Eye, Enable and Line of Duty) won 5 of the 14 Breeders' Cup Races. 


My favorite horse racing hypothesis has been that it is the jockeys and the trainers who are the key components behind the horses who have successful days at these type of events, unless the horse is truly a special talent, which will eventually show on the track. 


Certain jockeys are so talented and have big event experience to motivate or lead certain horses  to win races,  that  perhaps  they would not be able to do with an average rider aboard. 


The 2018 Breeders' Cup validated this hypothesis over the weekend,  as eight out of the 14 races were won by five top-notch Jockeys (Javier Castellano, Irad Ortiz Jr., Jose Ortiz, Joel Rosario and John Velasquez) whom I have grown to admire and respect over the years. 


In fact, those five jockeys combined to produce 8 wins and 6 second place finishes out of the 14 total races. 


So here is my rule of thumb from now on regarding horse racing, stick to the formula of selecting my favorite proven jockeys to use as a gauge for picking winners.


 Add in a quality trainer and a horse with a strong bloodline who has provided results on the track and lets cash some tickets. 


A Big Thank you goes out to the Breeders' Cup Jim Gluckson for his hospitality and always great conversation. Continued success.  
Changing The Rules Would Cheapen Winning The Triple Crown

 Horse racing fans have enjoyed the trek of California Chrome trying to become the first horse since 1978 to win the Triple Crown. To do so is not easy, it is a grueling campaign because horses are asked to run three races within five weeks at various distances.

 The first is the Kentucky Derby which is a middle distance race, second is the Preakness which is the shortest race and finally there's the Belmont Stakes which is the longest of the three at a mile and a half long.

 Leading up to the Belmont Stakes, California Chrome was a rag to riches story , who was bought for $8000 and made his mark in two of the Triple Crown races. At the Belmont Stakes, California Chrome fell short and finished tied for fourth, losing to horses that did not run in the other Triple Crown races .

 According to co-owner Steve Coburn, it was an absolute travesty that horses that did not qualify for the Kentucky Derby were allowed to race in the final contest of the Triple Crown, the Belmont Stakes. He even went as far as calling the other horses owners and anyone associated with them cheaters. Tonalist, the winner of the Belmont stakes did not run in the two previous races of the Triple Crown and served as spoiler to California Chrome's dream season .

 Coburn did apologize a few days later, but the damage was already done and put a huge damper on what California Chrome accomplished.  

With California Chrome's Belmont Stakes loss, 17 horses have won the Derby and Preakness before going on to lose the final Triple Crown race. 

Winning the Triple Crown is unique and even casual sports fans like to see the best compete and history in the making. To go out and change the rules now, would tarnish the greatness of this historic feat and what that means. I remember watching the battles between Affirmed and Alydar back in 1978, with the races being very close built excitement and had people eagerly anticipating the next match-up. 

There was great drama and intrigue but that's what made the entire process special. There will always be new challenges to test horses like California Chrome who are trying to secure their place in history.  

 When the horse is considered a "Super Horse" it will not be denied by any opponent and that's what makes them special and their accomplishments, historic and note worthy.

 Here are some of the horses that won the first two legs of the Triple Crown but fell short in the Belmont.

Spectacular Bid-1979; 1981 Pleasant Colony-1981; Ali Sheba-1987; Sunday Silence-1989; Silver Charm-1997; Real Quiet-1998; Charismatic-1999; War Emblem-2002; Funny Cide-2003; Smarty Jones-2004; Big Brown- 2008; and California Chrome in 2014.

 In the 1970's, there were three Triple Crown winners, (Secretariat, Seattle Slew and Affirmed) and I believe at some point there will be another in the near future, but to change the rules in order to make things easier for horses to win the three races, would be a disservice to the sport. 

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